The salient question for investors at this point is whether Clinton’s strengthening lead will precipitate a Democratic “wave” in down-ballot races that will turn over the Republican House of Representatives to Democratic control.
Today’s CPI release was a bit of a mixed bag, but overall it doesn’t change our view that headline year-over-year inflation should accelerate toward 2.0%–2.5% over the coming year.
We continue to see an opportunity for active managers to add attractive incremental federally tax-exempt yield to portfolios.
The main takeaway from these 15 single-spaced pages is that the decision was a “close call” for several of the participants who did not in the end advocate for a rate hike in September.
A ray of optimism peeked through at the annual IMF meetings.
Heightened worries about politics, populism and protectionism, together with diminished fears of deflation and recession, will likely lead to a very different policy mix in the advanced economies: less monetary, more fiscal.
Trump may be off life support, but his debate performance is unlikely to achieve what it needed to do.
In the near-term at least, non-traditional lending looks set to remain outside the traditional banking sector, creating opportunity for platforms with efficient funding models that can navigate the regulatory terrain.
While we believe a failure of the referendum to pass would hurt the country’s long-term political stability and reform prospects, we view the key risk to markets to be the election of an anti-establishment euroskeptic government – an outcome we think is unlikely irrespective of the referendum’s outcome.
Despite the bumpy road over the past year, the promise held out by the IMF’s decision is gradually being realized.