A coffee fix is an essential morning ritual for countless people around the world. But how many of them paid attention to the wild ride in coffee futures in the past six months?
Anyone who follows oil prices would have noticed the jump this week as Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes in Yemen. We view this conflict as having little immediate impact on the oil markets.
Mar 27, 2015
Economic growth likely translates to expanding credit availability, better employment data and greater demand from first-time homebuyers and young adults.
While global steelmakers will enjoy falling costs for raw materials like iron ore and metallurgical coal over the short term, China’s economic slowdown is spelling tough times for them over the secular horizon.
February U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data surprised modestly to the upside this morning, with both the headline and core measures rising +0.2% on a month-over-month (MoM) basis, which translated to a +1.7% year-over-year (YoY) rise in core CPI and a flat year-over-year reading in headline CPI.
PIMCO’s quarterly Cyclical Forum was held earlier this month to evaluate and assess the state of the global economy, to reach consensus on the near-term macroeconomic outlook, and to explore the tail risks to that outlook.
Now that the Federal Reserve has removed “patient” from its forward guidance, investors need to think about what this means for 1) the trajectory of short-term interest rates and 2) the potential exit strategies for the Fed’s $4.5 trillion in holdings of U.S. Treasuries, Agency debt and Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
The Fed is likely to drop the word “patient” from its policy statement on March 18th, code that the FOMC won’t be hiking interest rates until after its next couple of meetings. In recent remarks to Congress, Fed Chair Janet Yellen was careful not to prejudge the FOMC’s decision at the upcoming meeting.
National U.S. home prices have increased by over 27% from the bottom in early 2012, helping to improve consumer balance sheets and drive a strong recovery in a variety of housing-related assets. Going forward, we believe that analyzing the potential demand from young adults is critical to understanding the potential further upside in the residential sector.
Over the past year, U.S. payrolls expanded by about 3.3 million persons, yet job openings increased by about 1.1 million persons to a 14-year high of about five million, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover (or “JOLT”) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In other words, demand for labor outstripped supply by 1.1 million persons.