When one chairs the most influential central bank in the world, words are everything.
In July, we observed that tailwinds from ever-lower policy rates and lower valuations are behind us. We highlighted the importance of robust portfolio construction and suggested investors could improve outcomes by being tactical and incorporating alternative sources of return and alpha. This post offers a brief update to these views.
The news of House Speaker John Boehner’s retirement from Congress was no doubt a surprise, but more for its timing than its ultimate outcome.
A fourth member, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), has joined the Major Central Bank Club and continues to shake things up.
Questions remain over the ability of the Greek economy to return to growth and to adopt a sustainable financial and public-sector model over the medium term. In our view, however, such risks may take a while to materialize.
The Fed statement today can best be characterized as a (very) dovish punt. No hike today and no reason to think the Fed believes it will hike in December.
Wednesday’s modestly disappointing CPI report provided an endorsement of our view: Core goods inflation continued to decline, falling 0.08% over the previous month, while shelter inflation grew at 0.22%, modestly softer than its recent trend.
Our data-dependent Fed has all the information required to support a decision to hike the fed funds rate.
If Fed Chair Janet Yellen wants to start hiking in September, she can pick and choose among U.S. economic data to support that case.
At its 3 September press conference, the European Central Bank (ECB) revised down its economic growth and inflation forecasts as expected, reflecting weaker growth in emerging markets and lower oil prices since its June 2015 forecasts.