Weakness in the U.S. economy leaves it vulnerable to shocks. We think the Fed will respond with additional easing this year.

Attacks and outages could add to the longer-term geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.

That fiscal policy is becoming the new monetary policy when it comes to fighting recession was a key conclusion of PIMCO’s Secular Forum, and this was the message ECB President Mario Draghi underlined through both actions and words.

Continued tight crude balances could be the bigger surprise to the market.

Two decades after inception, the eurozone countries’ arranged marriage-type of union looks shaky at best, and now it is even more challenged by ongoing, global disruptive forces.

While slower earnings growth is a broad headwind for both corporate debt and equities, it also tends to increase performance dispersion.

Even with additional cuts, we think economic growth could slow to a below-trend pace and prompt the unemployment rate to rise over several subsequent quarters.

The institutional “golden fetters” of the interwar period have been replaced by fundamental “global fetters” that severely constrain monetary policy.

The risk of recession has risen, but it’s not a foregone conclusion.

We think the Federal Reserve will look past stronger-than-expected consumer price increases in June and July.

The last few days have highlighted the inherent fragility in markets – and the growth outlook globally.