A large fiscal package geared toward pandemic relief will likely boost U.S. growth even further in 2021, but long-term inflationary risks are still balanced.

A clear communication strategy is crucial to managing market expectations around changes in Federal Reserve asset purchases and interest rate policy.

Despite seeing major market swings following the 2016 Brexit referendum, we don’t expect Britain’s departure from the European Union (EU) to have any major economic effects in our baseline outlook for 2021 and beyond. Far more important are COVID-19, fiscal policy, and bigger questions around future productivity growth.

A confluence of dynamics are set to accelerate global capital flows to emerging markets amid attractive valuations.

Global output and demand are likely to rebound strongly in 2021, but we see risks that call for careful portfolio positioning.

With a narrowly Democratic Congress, U.S. fiscal spending is likely to increase on economic relief from the pandemic, infrastructure, and healthcare, boosting the economic rebound.

Is the 60/40 stock-bond portfolio dead? We don’t think so.

The Federal Reserve signals that monetary policy accommodation will remain firmly in place.

As European inflation and growth remain subdued, the European Central Bank expanded its monetary support. The central bank, however, is now focusing more on the region’s financing, rather than financial, conditions.

Debt of many emerging market countries can offer robust yields and enhance portfolio diversification, provided the asset manager has the resources and sophistication to avoid potential pitfalls.

The COVID shock has amplified disruptive trends, but we see global investment opportunities in the volatility ahead.

Policy will continue to be carefully calibrated as China walks a tightrope between supporting growth and maintaining financial stability.