Each quarter, PIMCO’s investment professionals from around the globe gather in Newport Beach to update the firm’s global economic outlook. Here are four key forecasts for the next 12 months, derived from our Cyclical Forum in March.
1. We see somewhat stronger global growth in 2015 than was recorded in 2014, but our views for global growth have not increased materially since our December 2014 forum.
2. While we see somewhat faster growth in the eurozone, U.S. and Japan in 2015, we have marked down our growth outlook for China.
3. Lower oil prices and a wave of monetary policy accommodation in the rest of the world are a net positive for the global economy, but there are losers as well as winners, especially in some emerging market economies. We expect oil prices to firm modestly this year as both supply and demand respond to lower prices.
4. We expect global inflation to remain stable in the aggregate, but with many central banks easing monetary policy as an insurance policy against deflation or to spur growth.
Read more of PIMCO’s outlook from the forum here.