Whether or not the Federal Reserve will stick to its planned rate-hike path is a key question for financial markets.

Despite similarities with the 2015 devaluation, the global fallout will likely be more limited.

In Europe, the secular risks appear to be materializing more quickly than expected, particularly in Italy.

While larger companies in China should withstand the impact of tariffs, smaller enterprises and other, open Asian economies could suffer.

Our base case is that oil balances remain tight and that prices realized exceed what the futures market is indicating.

The Fed’s dilemma: overtightening versus overheating.

One of the potential rude awakenings that we advised investors to prepare for in our recent Secular Outlook is a surprising surge of productivity growth over the next several years.

We expect China’s real estate balloon to deflate slowly given inventory is close to record lows and the government has plenty of room for policy relaxation.

We may be witnessing an important turning point: Ten years after the financial crisis, the global economy and financial markets look set to enter a new era of potentially radical change.

With the number of potential catalysts in the next month or so, we could see trade risk escalate.

We believe the trend to simplify complex corporate structures strengthens the case for investing in MLPs and in midstream energy more broadly.

We believe 2018 may be the year that challenges preconceptions about the equity/inflation correlation, and the market’s reaction to April’s soft inflation readings seems to bear this out.

The ultimate impact will depend on Russia and OPEC’s responses to rising prices and tightening supplies.

Europe’s unconventional monetary policies and low levels of interest rates are likely to persist.