While Congress makes progress on infrastructure legislation, the specter of another debt-ceiling showdown gives investors cause for concern.

PIMCO’s base case forecast includes a modest rise in U.S. Treasury yields, amid likely volatility and risks to the outlook.

The U.S. Fed stopped short of providing “advance notice,” but a December tapering announcement remains likely.

The European Central Bank (ECB) unveiled a newly reformulated, more ambitious inflation target. Without new mechanisms to achieve it, however, we believe inflation will remain stubbornly stuck well below 2%.

A bipartisan deal on infrastructure spending would likely be followed by a separate partisan deal funded by tax increases.

Leveraged loan issuers have lagged other fixed income market issuers in moving to SOFR as a reference rate, posing potential risks to investors as the year-end deadline approaches.

Economic growth and inflation will likely peak in 2021 and then moderate in 2022 as fiscal and monetary policy support recede.

Buoyed by faster growth and higher inflation expectations, the Fed advances rate hikes to 2023 and broaches the topic of tapering.

Natural herd immunity in predominantly young emerging markets populations looks set to offset slower vaccine rollouts, setting the stage for a resurgence in economic growth.

We believe the U.S. is undergoing a large price-level adjustment, not shifting to a persistently higher inflation regime.

While the market should remain relatively stable this year, we are monitoring three themes that could have a significant impact over the longer term.

To sustainably reach its inflation target, the Fed must raise inflation expectations – and that likely will require a period of above-target inflation.

Amid a brightening economic outlook, the Bank of Canada could begin tapering its bond purchase program this month, though we think it’s a close call and believe a cautious approach is warranted.

The global economy is poised for a strong recovery. Inflation is likely to spike temporarily, but we forecast that much of this rise will reverse later this year.

Democrats could begin working on a tax bill later this year, but resulting tax hikes may be weaker and less of a headwind to growth than some fear.

The expiration of the temporary SLR changes should enhance the soundness of the banking system, but likely at the cost of Treasury market liquidity.

The Federal Reserve’s communications following its March meeting should help anchor inflation expectations.

The COVID-19 relief bill has spurred talk of inflation, but financial stability may be a more relevant risk.