Tensions in the Middle East and North Africa have once again brought geopolitical risks to the forefront of oil markets.

We discuss two of the key themes from our latest Cyclical Outlook that are likely to drive the global economy in the year ahead.

While the UK election result reduces Brexit uncertainty significantly, it doesn’t eliminate it. Will there be an extension of the transition period? How will any deal affect the economy?

In its December forecasts, the Federal Reserve estimates that the policy rate will hold steady through 2020. Will economic and trade developments change that view?

The recent repo squall shined a spotlight on “sponsored repo” transactions, a growing segment of the U.S. overnight funding market.

Equity and credit markets have thus far taken lackluster earnings results and lower expectations in stride, but we think this could change if confidence readings drop further.

The pitfalls and opportunities we see in high yield markets highlight the importance of active portfolio management, rigorous credit analysis, and taking a cautious and selective approach.

Fed Chair Powell signaled that another “insurance” rate cut is unlikely. Instead, further rate cuts are contingent on a more material deterioration in the economic outlook.

The U.K. is set to head to the polls on December 12. Here are our key takeaways for the economy and markets.

Trade, geopolitics, and emerging markets were top of mind at the recent annual meetings.

Headline inflation resulting from a food price shock can never be ignored fully.

Without pouring water on the “love fest,” we contend that the deal struck between China and the U.S. leaves much to be desired.

We believe the impeachment inquiry could have an adverse impact on the ongoing U.S.–China trade conflict, but there may be a silver lining for NAFTA 2.0.

In our latest Cyclical Outlook, we discuss a period of vulnerability for the global economy.

Weakness in the U.S. economy leaves it vulnerable to shocks. We think the Fed will respond with additional easing this year.

Attacks and outages could add to the longer-term geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.

That fiscal policy is becoming the new monetary policy when it comes to fighting recession was a key conclusion of PIMCO’s Secular Forum, and this was the message ECB President Mario Draghi underlined through both actions and words.

Continued tight crude balances could be the bigger surprise to the market.