The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates at its July meeting. But how much will it cut?

June inflation may have been boosted by the recent increase in import tariffs, while inflationary pressures from rising wages and tight labor markets remain notably subdued.

Perhaps it’s time to ask whether the 2% inflation target has outlived its usefulness.

The tone of the FOMC statement and press conference was a notable shift from the May meeting, given uncertainty around the economic outlook.

With more bonds trading at negative yields globally, benchmark-agnostic strategies look compelling.

Demand concerns, trade tensions, and strong implied U.S. production are driving an oil sell-off, much like in fourth-quarter 2018, but the complicated backdrop may create investment opportunities.

We don’t expect a Fed rate cut in June, but if downside risks to the economy escalate, a 50 basis point cut in July is possible, in our view.

New U.S. tariffs on Mexico would add to the direct economic costs of the string of tariff hikes enacted during this administration.

In our latest Secular Outlook, we discuss our baseline long-term view for the global economy and share ideas for how investors can deal with disruptions. Here are the key takeaways.

With the U.S. and China raising tariffs on each other’s goods, we may be entering a prolonged period of trade tension.

Shelter inflation, which tends to be influenced by the business cycle – and is therefore a focus for the Fed – was again firm.

We see reasons why the current monetary and fiscal policy rhetoric may support higher inflation.

It’s time to pay attention to repos, the building blocks of return for many short-term strategies.

As the transition away from Libor (the London Interbank Offered Rate) as the industry-preferred floating-rate benchmark continues, many investors are raising concerns about how both new and existing short-term and floating-rate instruments currently indexed to Libor will adjust when Libor is no longer available.

Many investors wonder what will happen in their portfolios following the retirement of Libor as the predominant floating-rate benchmark index. The derivative industry, including investment managers, is preparing for the transition, though uncertainties remain.

A quiet and unsurprising FOMC statement belies the important policy discussions and decisions ongoing at the Fed.

There are three main macro factors for markets – the business cycle, the liquidity cycle, and the political cycle.