The risk of recession has risen, but it’s not a foregone conclusion.

We think the Federal Reserve will look past stronger-than-expected consumer price increases in June and July.

The last few days have highlighted the inherent fragility in markets – and the growth outlook globally.

It is no longer absurd to think that the nominal yield on U.S. Treasury securities could go negative.

The U.S. has been officially engaged in trade talks with China since March 2018 and has had very few tangible results.

Come the fall, the ECB will likely deliver yet another easing package that could effectively deplete its monetary policy toolbox.

We find the Fed’s statement clear, and we expect another rate cut as soon as September with possible additional cuts thereafter.

The market consequences of direct intervention by the U.S. could be substantial and thus bear consideration.

The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates at its July meeting. But how much will it cut?

June inflation may have been boosted by the recent increase in import tariffs, while inflationary pressures from rising wages and tight labor markets remain notably subdued.

Perhaps it’s time to ask whether the 2% inflation target has outlived its usefulness.

The tone of the FOMC statement and press conference was a notable shift from the May meeting, given uncertainty around the economic outlook.

With more bonds trading at negative yields globally, benchmark-agnostic strategies look compelling.

Demand concerns, trade tensions, and strong implied U.S. production are driving an oil sell-off, much like in fourth-quarter 2018, but the complicated backdrop may create investment opportunities.

We don’t expect a Fed rate cut in June, but if downside risks to the economy escalate, a 50 basis point cut in July is possible, in our view.

New U.S. tariffs on Mexico would add to the direct economic costs of the string of tariff hikes enacted during this administration.

In our latest Secular Outlook, we discuss our baseline long-term view for the global economy and share ideas for how investors can deal with disruptions. Here are the key takeaways.

With the U.S. and China raising tariffs on each other’s goods, we may be entering a prolonged period of trade tension.