With the U.S. and China raising tariffs on each other’s goods, we may be entering a prolonged period of trade tension.

Shelter inflation, which tends to be influenced by the business cycle – and is therefore a focus for the Fed – was again firm.

We see reasons why the current monetary and fiscal policy rhetoric may support higher inflation.

It’s time to pay attention to repos, the building blocks of return for many short-term strategies.

As the transition away from Libor (the London Interbank Offered Rate) as the industry-preferred floating-rate benchmark continues, many investors are raising concerns about how both new and existing short-term and floating-rate instruments currently indexed to Libor will adjust when Libor is no longer available.

Many investors wonder what will happen in their portfolios following the retirement of Libor as the predominant floating-rate benchmark index. The derivative industry, including investment managers, is preparing for the transition, though uncertainties remain.

A quiet and unsurprising FOMC statement belies the important policy discussions and decisions ongoing at the Fed.

There are three main macro factors for markets – the business cycle, the liquidity cycle, and the political cycle.

While we believe that optimism regarding an evolving and eventual trade deal between the U.S. and China is well-placed, we would caution investors against growing complacent about trade policy risk more broadly.

The overall tone at the mid-April meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group in Washington, DC, was optimistic, albeit mindful of the differentiated political and idiosyncratic risks across emerging markets.

Eurostat’s recent revision of the HICPxT index could have two potentially wide-reaching effects for euro area inflation-linked bonds (ILB) investors.

Even as the probability of a recession in the near-term remains low, we believe investors should look to sectors that are likely to be resilient in periods of higher volatility.

Following the Federal Reserve’s pivot to patience, we believe U.S. short-term interest rates are now anchored in The New Neutral. Global growth keeps synching lower, but may experience a soft landing later this year if China’s economy stabilizes and trade tensions ease. However, political uncertainties suggest a cautious overall approach to investing. These are three key conclusions we discuss in detail in our latest Cyclical Outlook, “Flatlining at The New Neutral.”

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at this week’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, but other aspects of the meeting had notable implications for markets and investors.

Investors in UK inflation-linked bonds are facing two critical sources of structural uncertainty: Brexit-induced volatility and questions about the deeply entrenched (yet problematic) Retail Price Index (RPI).

The divergence between recent bullish factor performance and weaker economic fundamentals should give investors pause.