The U.S. central bank is damned either way as it faces a choice on a September rate rise.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium emphasized several important uncertainties about the structural aspects in the U.S. economy that greatly complicate the central bankers’ medium-term job of setting monetary policy.

The increase in inflation reinforces our view that the Fed will continue its gradual pace of interest rate hikes.

Overall, we believe the administration’s recent trade policies and proposals pose a negative risk to our U.S. economic outlook over the cyclical (six- to 12-month) horizon, while the longer-term impact is less certain.

The meeting minutes due in a few weeks will likely shed light on the Fed’s longer-term framework for implementing monetary policy.