By Andrew Bosomworth |
We think Thursday’s downgraded growth assessment is a precursor to two changes in the ECB’s monetary policy stance later this year.
While we believe the shutdown on its own would have only a modest impact on growth, the combined impact of this and other short-term drags on the economy could slow first-quarter growth close to the zero mark.
In our view, a combination of positive macroeconomic factors is likely to keep prepayment speeds higher than the market projects.
By Libby Cantrill |
In our outlook for 2019, we believe politics and policy out of Washington will continue to drive – and in some cases, weigh on – markets, much like they did in 2018.
By Tiffany Wilding |
We believe the Fed is right to be cautious in the face of rising global economic risks.
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