The UK is now entering a period of significantly greater uncertainty as the political outlook has become more clouded.

The global economy faces several potential pivots in the direction and scale of monetary, fiscal, trade, geopolitical and exchange rate policies. One in particular will help determine the long-term outlook for China and emerging Asia.

The Fed’s “opportunistic tightening” campaign risks cementing inflation expectations below the target.

Why China’s yield curve became inverted and what it means for the economy.

Why falling commodity prices may not upend the EM rally.

May’s inflation weakness was broad-based across goods and services categories and will be more difficult for Fed officials to dismiss as a “one-off.”

The Fed hiked despite a spate of weak economic data.

We think those expecting a “bubble to burst” as the Fed balance sheet shrinks may be greatly underwhelmed.

While our baseline global forecast is relatively benign for Canadian growth over the secular horizon, we do highlight a number of risks that could cause external shocks to Canada’s small, open economy.

Once again the British electorate surprised markets, opening the door for easier fiscal policy and a “softer” Brexit.