As U.S. taxpayers think about positioning their portfolios, we see three key reasons why the tax-exempt municipal market may be attractive late in the cycle.

For now, markets are giving Bolsonaro the benefit of the doubt

Our latest Cyclical Outlook highlights the macro trends and market developments that underpin our outlook for 2019: slower growth, but likely no recession.

While trade policy has dominated headlines, we believe investors should focus on the collapse of Western Canadian Select (WCS) oil prices relative to global benchmarks, which represents the biggest exogenous risk to the Canadian economy.

A variety of factors will likely limit the scope for rates to rise significantly.

We think the September CPI print – while likely affected by statistical noise – offers evidence that inflationary pressures remain broadly manageable.

While we believe investors can expect a hawkish policy stance to keep supporting prices, the possible extension of waivers could drive the price trajectory.

Market expectations for infrastructure spending may keep Chinese iron ore and steel prices better supported versus base metals.