We believe the U.S. is undergoing a large price-level adjustment, not shifting to a persistently higher inflation regime.

While the market should remain relatively stable this year, we are monitoring three themes that could have a significant impact over the longer term.

To sustainably reach its inflation target, the Fed must raise inflation expectations – and that likely will require a period of above-target inflation.

Amid a brightening economic outlook, the Bank of Canada could begin tapering its bond purchase program this month, though we think it’s a close call and believe a cautious approach is warranted.

The global economy is poised for a strong recovery. Inflation is likely to spike temporarily, but we forecast that much of this rise will reverse later this year.

Democrats could begin working on a tax bill later this year, but resulting tax hikes may be weaker and less of a headwind to growth than some fear.

The expiration of the temporary SLR changes should enhance the soundness of the banking system, but likely at the cost of Treasury market liquidity.

The Federal Reserve’s communications following its March meeting should help anchor inflation expectations.

The COVID-19 relief bill has spurred talk of inflation, but financial stability may be a more relevant risk.

Longer-dated Treasury yields have climbed as markets consider whether economic growth and inflation expectations might accelerate more rapidly. We believe inflation pressures will remain in check and bond yields will be range-bound.

A recent report showed an uptick in inflation in Europe, but markets are pricing in low inflation over the long term. We see opportunity for investors to hedge inflation risk.

China’s economy should see a soft landing as stimulus is reduced, but the drag on global growth may place a burden on developed economies to keep stimulus taps open for longer.