It is no longer absurd to think that the nominal yield on U.S. Treasury securities could go negative.

In our latest Secular Outlook, we discuss our baseline long-term view for the global economy and share ideas for how investors can deal with disruptions. Here are the key takeaways.

There are three main macro factors for markets – the business cycle, the liquidity cycle, and the political cycle.

Following the Federal Reserve’s pivot to patience, we believe U.S. short-term interest rates are now anchored in The New Neutral. Global growth keeps synching lower, but may experience a soft landing later this year if China’s economy stabilizes and trade tensions ease. However, political uncertainties suggest a cautious overall approach to investing. These are three key conclusions we discuss in detail in our latest Cyclical Outlook, “Flatlining at The New Neutral.”

Five key macro debates are likely to shape the economic and market outlook for 2019.

Our latest Cyclical Outlook highlights the macro trends and market developments that underpin our outlook for 2019: slower growth, but likely no recession.

The U.S. central bank is damned either way as it faces a choice on a September rate rise.

President Trump has opened a new front in the cold currency war.

Whether or not the Federal Reserve will stick to its planned rate-hike path is a key question for financial markets.

One of the potential rude awakenings that we advised investors to prepare for in our recent Secular Outlook is a surprising surge of productivity growth over the next several years.