Evidence from decades and even centuries ago, plus the unique circumstances of the current global health crisis and its economic impact, suggests we can expect a “New Neutral 2.0” of lower interest rates for longer.

We expect the global economy and financial markets to transition from intense near-term pain to gradual healing over the next six to 12 months. However, there is the risk if not the likelihood of an uneven recovery, with significant setbacks along the way and some permanent damage.

Governments and central banks have started to respond more forcefully to the health crisis, enacting policy in an effort to limit long-term damage to the global economy.

Global growth could follow a U-shaped path over the next few quarters, though substantial uncertainty remains as policymakers grapple with the impact of the coronavirus.

Three key themes from our latest Cyclical Outlook will likely drive the global economy and central bank policy in the year ahead.

This time, it’s the riskier segments of the corporate credit market – not housing – that could trigger the next downturn.

We discuss two of the key themes from our latest Cyclical Outlook that are likely to drive the global economy in the year ahead.

In our latest Cyclical Outlook, we discuss a period of vulnerability for the global economy.

The institutional “golden fetters” of the interwar period have been replaced by fundamental “global fetters” that severely constrain monetary policy.

It is no longer absurd to think that the nominal yield on U.S. Treasury securities could go negative.

In our latest Secular Outlook, we discuss our baseline long-term view for the global economy and share ideas for how investors can deal with disruptions. Here are the key takeaways.

There are three main macro factors for markets – the business cycle, the liquidity cycle, and the political cycle.

Following the Federal Reserve’s pivot to patience, we believe U.S. short-term interest rates are now anchored in The New Neutral. Global growth keeps synching lower, but may experience a soft landing later this year if China’s economy stabilizes and trade tensions ease. However, political uncertainties suggest a cautious overall approach to investing. These are three key conclusions we discuss in detail in our latest Cyclical Outlook, “Flatlining at The New Neutral.”