We believe shorter business cycles, elevated volatility, and diminished policy responses warrant a focus on portfolio resilience over reaching for yield.

Significant uncertainty clouds the outlook as the global economy confronts a shock that is negative for growth and will likely spur further inflation. Recession risks have increased.

A radically different macro environment should yield good opportunities for investors able to navigate the difficult terrain.

The global economy is poised for a strong recovery. Inflation is likely to spike temporarily, but we forecast that much of this rise will reverse later this year.

Global output and demand are likely to rebound strongly in 2021, but we see risks that call for careful portfolio positioning.

The COVID shock has amplified disruptive trends, but we see global investment opportunities in the volatility ahead.

The lack of market reaction suggests that many investors are not convinced that the Fed’s new guidance represents any material shift in policy.

Fed officials seek higher inflation but need help from fiscal policymakers.

While a near-term mechanical bounce in economic activity in response to the lifting or easing of lockdown measures looks likely, we expect the subsequent climb up to be long and arduous.

Evidence from decades and even centuries ago, plus the unique circumstances of the current global health crisis and its economic impact, suggests we can expect a “New Neutral 2.0” of lower interest rates for longer.

We expect the global economy and financial markets to transition from intense near-term pain to gradual healing over the next six to 12 months. However, there is the risk if not the likelihood of an uneven recovery, with significant setbacks along the way and some permanent damage.

Governments and central banks have started to respond more forcefully to the health crisis, enacting policy in an effort to limit long-term damage to the global economy.

Global growth could follow a U-shaped path over the next few quarters, though substantial uncertainty remains as policymakers grapple with the impact of the coronavirus.

Three key themes from our latest Cyclical Outlook will likely drive the global economy and central bank policy in the year ahead.

This time, it’s the riskier segments of the corporate credit market – not housing – that could trigger the next downturn.

We discuss two of the key themes from our latest Cyclical Outlook that are likely to drive the global economy in the year ahead.

In our latest Cyclical Outlook, we discuss a period of vulnerability for the global economy.

The institutional “golden fetters” of the interwar period have been replaced by fundamental “global fetters” that severely constrain monetary policy.