By Libby Cantrill, Tiffany Wilding | Jan 18, 2019 The Economic Cost of the U.S. Shutdown Showdown While we believe the shutdown on its own would have only a modest impact on growth, the combined impact of this and other short-term drags on the economy could slow first-quarter growth close to the zero mark.
By Libby Cantrill | Jan 14, 2019 U.S. Policy Outlook for 2019: Trade Risks Continue, But Might Not Escalate In our outlook for 2019, we believe politics and policy out of Washington will continue to drive – and in some cases, weigh on – markets, much like they did in 2018.
By Libby Cantrill, Scott A. Mather | Nov 07, 2018 Key Takeaways From the U.S. Midterms: What a Split Congress Means for Markets While divided governments have generally been decent for markets, we think a defensive portfolio posture is prudent.
By Libby Cantrill | Oct 31, 2018 U.S. Midterm Election Preview: Policy Gridlock Ahead From an investor’s perspective, the most important takeaway from the midterm elections is that trade policy risk will likely continue unabated no matter the outcome.
By Libby Cantrill, Tiffany Wilding | Aug 07, 2018 Could Trade Turmoil Be an Economic Spoiler for the U.S.? Overall, we believe the administration’s recent trade policies and proposals pose a negative risk to our U.S. economic outlook over the cyclical (six- to 12-month) horizon, while the longer-term impact is less certain.
By Libby Cantrill | Jun 06, 2018 The Summer of Discontent on Trade? Deadlines, Headlines and Escalation Catalysts With the number of potential catalysts in the next month or so, we could see trade risk escalate.
By Libby Cantrill, Tiffany Wilding | Apr 09, 2018 Trade Tensions Mount: What It Means for Growth We expect the direct economic impact of current trade actions to be relatively minor (and dwarfed by the pro-growth measures passed to date), but further escalation of trade tensions could strengthen the economic headwinds.
By Libby Cantrill, Mike Cudzil, Daniel H. Hyman, Kent Smith | Apr 03, 2018 Uniform Mortgage-Backed Security Initiative (‘Single Security’): Stop Throwing Good Money After Bad In our view as investors, the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) “Single Security” initiative is emblematic of a sunk cost fallacy.
By Libby Cantrill, Tiffany Wilding | Mar 15, 2018 Trump, Tariffs and Trade: Three Takeaways for Investors We believe the trade actions with the most significant potential economic and market impact have yet to unfold.
By Libby Cantrill | Feb 16, 2018 Charting Tax Reform's Impact on Corporate Bonds U.S. Tax reform is likely to be a net positive for corporate bonds, but active credit selection remains key.
By Libby Cantrill | Jan 16, 2018 U.S. Policy Outlook for 2018: Expect Action on Trade and Government Spending A key question for investors is will momentum beget momentum with Congress delivering more pro-growth policies, or will Washington revert to its steady state of paralysis? Here is what we see on the horizon for 2018.
By Libby Cantrill, Naila Makhdumi | Dec 06, 2017 Financial Deregulation Outlook: Evolutionary, Not Revolutionary Libby Cantrill, PIMCO’s head of public policy, and Naila Makhdumi, account manager on the global wealth management team, assess the prospects for financial deregulation under President Trump.
By Libby Cantrill | Nov 28, 2017 Tax Reform: There’s Will, But Is There a Way? While there is significant political will to get a tax bill passed, investors should be mindful of the obstacles that still lie ahead.
By Libby Cantrill, Mike Cudzil, Daniel H. Hyman, Kent Smith | Oct 11, 2017 Will Fannie and Freddie Draw From the Treasury? Much Ado About Nothing … We believe the policy focus should be on what agency MBS investors really care about: making the government guarantee explicit.
By Libby Cantrill | Sep 28, 2017 Tax Reform: Challenges Ahead Translating a feel-good tax proposal to legislation that can pass is harder than it may seem.
By Libby Cantrill | Sep 06, 2017 Congress’ Must-Do List Is Looking More Doable, but After That … We think Washington will likely avoid a worst-case scenario in September and that investors will be able to breathe a sigh of relief, but they should not become too complacent.
By Libby Cantrill | Jun 28, 2017 What the Latest Healthcare Hiccup Means for the U.S. Economy Investors should not hold their breath about seeing much to lift U.S. growth coming out of Congress in 2017 – or possibly even in 2018.
By Libby Cantrill | Apr 28, 2017 Trump’s First 100 Days: Should Investors Take Notice? Looking at several metrics – legislative achievements, staffing in key areas and executive orders – President Trump’s first-100-day track record has been mixed.
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