By Libby Cantrill, Jerome M. Schneider, Jerry Woytash | Aug 30, 2021 A Dizzying Summer in D.C. as U.S. Debt Ceiling Looms Again While Congress makes progress on infrastructure legislation, the specter of another debt-ceiling showdown gives investors cause for concern.
By Libby Cantrill | Jul 08, 2021 We Have a Deal: U.S. Infrastructure Spending Soon, Tax Increases Likely Later A bipartisan deal on infrastructure spending would likely be followed by a separate partisan deal funded by tax increases.
By David Forgash, Libby Cantrill, Bryan Tsu | Jun 30, 2021 Leveraged Loan Issuers: Just Do It (Transition to SOFR) Leveraged loan issuers have lagged other fixed income market issuers in moving to SOFR as a reference rate, posing potential risks to investors as the year-end deadline approaches.
By Libby Cantrill | Mar 29, 2021 Will Taxes Rise in the U.S.? Democrats could begin working on a tax bill later this year, but resulting tax hikes may be weaker and less of a headwind to growth than some fear.
By Libby Cantrill, Tiffany Wilding | Feb 24, 2021 Fiscal Spending Could Cause a U.S. Growth Spike – Compounding Investors’ Concerns on Inflation A large fiscal package geared toward pandemic relief will likely boost U.S. growth even further in 2021, but long-term inflationary risks are still balanced.
By Libby Cantrill, Tiffany Wilding, Allison Boxer | Jan 08, 2021 A Narrowly Democratic Congress Could Boost Spending and Growth With a narrowly Democratic Congress, U.S. fiscal spending is likely to increase on economic relief from the pandemic, infrastructure, and healthcare, boosting the economic rebound.
By Libby Cantrill, Tiffany Wilding | May 13, 2020 Six Key Questions on U.S. Policy and the Economic Outlook The U.S. political focus has shifted to the reopening of the economy.
By Libby Cantrill, Tiffany Wilding | Mar 30, 2020 Economic Fallout: Here Comes Congress! The $2.2 trillion stimulus is the biggest ever, but the U.S. Congress may be forced to do even more.
By Libby Cantrill, Tiffany Wilding | Mar 18, 2020 Economic Fallout: Here Comes Congress? A bolder fiscal response to the rapidly spreading coronavirus has become an economic and political imperative.
By Libby Cantrill | Mar 09, 2020 Momentum Favors Biden for Democratic Nomination, But the Race Isn’t Over Senator Joe Biden is the current front-runner in a two-person race for the Democratic nomination, but upcoming state contests are crucial.
By Libby Cantrill | Feb 03, 2020 March May Matter More for Investors Watching U.S. Primaries We think investors should not extrapolate too much from who wins the early contests, including Iowa.
By Libby Cantrill | Dec 17, 2019 Year-End Tailwind: De-Escalating Policy Risks The U.S.-China trade deal is one of three diminishing policy risks, but investors shouldn’t assume that all policy uncertainty has been eliminated.
By Libby Cantrill | Oct 16, 2019 U.S.−China Trade Deal: A Temporary Reprieve Without pouring water on the “love fest,” we contend that the deal struck between China and the U.S. leaves much to be desired.
By Libby Cantrill | Oct 03, 2019 Impeachment Could Be Both Bad News and Good News for Trade Policy We believe the impeachment inquiry could have an adverse impact on the ongoing U.S.–China trade conflict, but there may be a silver lining for NAFTA 2.0.
By Libby Cantrill | Aug 06, 2019 Trade Tension Flare-Up: Not So Surprising The U.S. has been officially engaged in trade talks with China since March 2018 and has had very few tangible results.
By Libby Cantrill, Tiffany Wilding | Jun 05, 2019 New U.S.–Mexico Tariffs Would Add to Economic Costs New U.S. tariffs on Mexico would add to the direct economic costs of the string of tariff hikes enacted during this administration.
By Libby Cantrill, Tiffany Wilding | May 15, 2019 The Pivot in U.S.-China Trade Policy May Herald Long-Term Tension With the U.S. and China raising tariffs on each other’s goods, we may be entering a prolonged period of trade tension.
By Libby Cantrill | Apr 23, 2019 Trade Risks That Could Rattle Markets: NAFTA Withdrawal, Auto Tariffs While we believe that optimism regarding an evolving and eventual trade deal between the U.S. and China is well-placed, we would caution investors against growing complacent about trade policy risk more broadly.
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