In our view as investors, the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) “Single Security” initiative is emblematic of a sunk cost fallacy.

A key question for investors is will momentum beget momentum with Congress delivering more pro-growth policies, or will Washington revert to its steady state of paralysis? Here is what we see on the horizon for 2018.

While there is significant political will to get a tax bill passed, investors should be mindful of the obstacles that still lie ahead.

We believe the policy focus should be on what agency MBS investors really care about: making the government guarantee explicit.

We think Washington will likely avoid a worst-case scenario in September and that investors will be able to breathe a sigh of relief, but they should not become too complacent.

Investors should not hold their breath about seeing much to lift U.S. growth coming out of Congress in 2017 – or possibly even in 2018.

Looking at several metrics – legislative achievements, staffing in key areas and executive orders – President Trump’s first-100-day track record has been mixed.

After the healthcare bill stalled in the House of Representatives, the most salient question is what’s next?

Bullish reaction does not change the stubborn facts about policymaking in Washington.

All told, we think the prospects that President Trump will push through his policy agenda in the first year look tenuous at best.