Three key themes from our latest Cyclical Outlook will likely drive the global economy and central bank policy in the year ahead.

This time, it’s the riskier segments of the corporate credit market – not housing – that could trigger the next downturn.

As the Fed winds down its T-bill and repo programs, we don’t anticipate market volatility to emerge – at least not as a result of the Fed’s actions.

Questions about environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues are becoming central to commodity markets and capital allocation discussions.

In prioritizing stability over all other objectives, China is borrowing from future growth while reducing policy ammunition to counter future shocks.

Alongside pockets of weakness in credit markets come pockets of opportunity for active managers who focus on rigorous bottom-up research and careful credit selection.

Tensions in the Middle East and North Africa have once again brought geopolitical risks to the forefront of oil markets.

We discuss two of the key themes from our latest Cyclical Outlook that are likely to drive the global economy in the year ahead.

While the UK election result reduces Brexit uncertainty significantly, it doesn’t eliminate it. Will there be an extension of the transition period? How will any deal affect the economy?

In its December forecasts, the Federal Reserve estimates that the policy rate will hold steady through 2020. Will economic and trade developments change that view?

The recent repo squall shined a spotlight on “sponsored repo” transactions, a growing segment of the U.S. overnight funding market.

Equity and credit markets have thus far taken lackluster earnings results and lower expectations in stride, but we think this could change if confidence readings drop further.