With unemployment low and the U.S. economy enjoying a fiscal “sugar rush,” we think the odds of successfully engineering an inflation overshoot look pretty good – and that is pretty rare.

We expect U.S. core CPI of around 2.1% by the end of 2018 – a modest acceleration relative to 2017.

Over the next five years, there could be up to five significant pivots in the direction and scope of the monetary, fiscal, trade, geopolitical and exchange rate policies pursued by the world’s major countries.