In its December forecasts, the Federal Reserve estimates that the policy rate will hold steady through 2020. Will economic and trade developments change that view?

Fed Chair Powell signaled that another “insurance” rate cut is unlikely. Instead, further rate cuts are contingent on a more material deterioration in the economic outlook.

Weakness in the U.S. economy leaves it vulnerable to shocks. We think the Fed will respond with additional easing this year.

Even with additional cuts, we think economic growth could slow to a below-trend pace and prompt the unemployment rate to rise over several subsequent quarters.

The risk of recession has risen, but it’s not a foregone conclusion.

We think the Federal Reserve will look past stronger-than-expected consumer price increases in June and July.

We find the Fed’s statement clear, and we expect another rate cut as soon as September with possible additional cuts thereafter.

The market consequences of direct intervention by the U.S. could be substantial and thus bear consideration.

The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates at its July meeting. But how much will it cut?

June inflation may have been boosted by the recent increase in import tariffs, while inflationary pressures from rising wages and tight labor markets remain notably subdued.

The tone of the FOMC statement and press conference was a notable shift from the May meeting, given uncertainty around the economic outlook.

We don’t expect a Fed rate cut in June, but if downside risks to the economy escalate, a 50 basis point cut in July is possible, in our view.

New U.S. tariffs on Mexico would add to the direct economic costs of the string of tariff hikes enacted during this administration.

With the U.S. and China raising tariffs on each other’s goods, we may be entering a prolonged period of trade tension.

Shelter inflation, which tends to be influenced by the business cycle – and is therefore a focus for the Fed – was again firm.

A quiet and unsurprising FOMC statement belies the important policy discussions and decisions ongoing at the Fed.