The Bank of Canada embarked on a swift tightening path, but secular forces still weigh on the longer-run interest rate outlook.
Amid a brightening economic outlook, the Bank of Canada could begin tapering its bond purchase program this month, though we think it’s a close call and believe a cautious approach is warranted.
While trade policy has dominated headlines, we believe investors should focus on the collapse of Western Canadian Select (WCS) oil prices relative to global benchmarks, which represents the biggest exogenous risk to the Canadian economy.
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