By Carol Liao, Stephen Chang | Nov 03, 2022 Continuity and Concrete Direction: Takeaways From China’s 20th Party Congress Stability, security and self-reliance were overarching themes from China’s twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle. With few details disclosed on near-term supporting policies, we remain cautious on the Chinese market.
By Alex Zhou, Annisa Lee | Aug 08, 2022 China’s Mortgage Boycott: Could Property Sector Cracks Lead to Systemic Risk? Our stress tests show the Chinese banking sector as a whole can absorb shocks from a severe downside scenario, but mid-sized banks and contagion pose potential risks.
By Carol Liao, Allison Boxer | Jul 26, 2022 What China’s Recovering Supply Chain Means for Global Inflation Renewed growth in China’s manufacturing activity, coupled with softening developed market demand, should ease some supply-side pressures – but several other inflation risks remain prevalent.
By Alex Zhou, Annisa Lee | Jun 17, 2022 Chinese Financials Feeling the Squeeze Amid Sluggish Credit Demand Following strong double-digit profit growth in FY2021, we expect Chinese banks will be less profitable this year as COVID-19 lockdowns continue to disrupt China’s economy.
By Annisa Lee, Frank Chen | May 05, 2022 China’s Property Sector Slump: Is Recovery on the Horizon? In the absence of immediate and substantive policy easing at the national level, we believe that the sector could pose a serious risk to the government’s GDP growth target in 2022.
By Carol Liao | Apr 13, 2022 China Growth Outlook: Counting the Cost of Lockdowns While Beijing has set an ambitious growth target this year with a generous fiscal stimulus plan, new COVID-19 waves are adding to mounting headwinds amid a slowing global economy.
By Nick Berardy, Yishan Cao, Lillian Lin, Akimi Matsuda | Mar 30, 2022 Supply Chain Crisis: Disruption Should Lead to Greater Diversification Supply chains set to become less dependent on China over time.
By Carol Liao, Yishan Cao | Jul 08, 2021 Supply Bottlenecks Likely to Ease by the End of the Year The supply-demand imbalance should ease as spending on services outpaces demand for consumer goods in developed markets.
By Yishan Cao, Geraldine Sundstrom | Apr 08, 2021 Global Chip Shortage: The Winners and Losers We expect global tech spending to grow, driving demand for semiconductor components and leading to above-trend growth for the sector.
Oct 21, 2019 China CPI Breaks 3% PBOC Target: What Does It Mean for Policy? Headline inflation resulting from a food price shock can never be ignored fully.
By Libby Cantrill | Oct 16, 2019 U.S.−China Trade Deal: A Temporary Reprieve Without pouring water on the “love fest,” we contend that the deal struck between China and the U.S. leaves much to be desired.
By Libby Cantrill | Aug 06, 2019 Trade Tension Flare-Up: Not So Surprising The U.S. has been officially engaged in trade talks with China since March 2018 and has had very few tangible results.
By Libby Cantrill, Tiffany Wilding | May 15, 2019 The Pivot in U.S.-China Trade Policy May Herald Long-Term Tension With the U.S. and China raising tariffs on each other’s goods, we may be entering a prolonged period of trade tension.
By Robert Mead | May 07, 2019 Political Winds in Australia and the Likelihood of Lower-for-Longer Interest Rates Although the Commonwealth Government can borrow for 10 years at the lowest rate on record, the burden of policy support has continued to fall on the Reserve Bank of Australia.
By Gene Frieda, Stephen Chang | Jan 31, 2019 China’s Growth Playbook: How to Get Out of a Fix After a long period of investment-driven growth, China is changing its playbook.
Apr 26, 2018 China’s Surprise Reserve Requirement Cut: Liquidity Fine-Tuning or Policy Shift? The move caused China’s entire yield curve to drop 15 basis points and raised interesting questions about the PBOC’s policy intent.
Mar 19, 2018 Inflation Rebound Signals China Is No Longer a Source of Global Disinflation In addition to China’s latest CPI, other signs point to sustained inflation in the country over the next year.
By Tomoya Masanao | Oct 23, 2017 Japan’s Election: ‘TINA’ to Abe Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s election victory augurs well for political stability and policy continuity, which are supportive for risk markets.
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Aaditya Thakur Akimi Matsuda Alex Zhou Allison Boxer Annisa Lee Carol Liao Frank Chen Gene Frieda Geraldine Sundstrom Joachim Fels Libby Cantrill Lillian Lin Nick Berardy Robert Mead Stephen Chang Taosha Wang Tiffany Wilding Tomoya Masanao Yishan Cao
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