We believe the Fed is right to be cautious in the face of rising global economic risks.

We continue to view one to two policy rate hikes in 2019 as more likely.

Will the ECB have sufficient firepower – and support from the population – to spur the economy when the next recession arrives?

With unemployment low and the U.S. economy enjoying a fiscal “sugar rush,” we think the odds of successfully engineering an inflation overshoot look pretty good – and that is pretty rare.

Markets may have taken Fed Chairman Powell’s speech as a sign that the risks of central bank overtightening have receded, but we wouldn’t over-interpret Powell’s message to suggest that he is ignoring the risks of the economy overheating.

While trade policy has dominated headlines, we believe investors should focus on the collapse of Western Canadian Select (WCS) oil prices relative to global benchmarks, which represents the biggest exogenous risk to the Canadian economy.

The Fed’s statement, projections and press conference support our view that the policy rate will continue to rise on a gradual trajectory.

A focus on backward-looking data could lead to an overtightening mistake.

The U.S. central bank is damned either way as it faces a choice on a September rate rise.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium emphasized several important uncertainties about the structural aspects in the U.S. economy that greatly complicate the central bankers’ medium-term job of setting monetary policy.

The meeting minutes due in a few weeks will likely shed light on the Fed’s longer-term framework for implementing monetary policy.

President Trump has opened a new front in the cold currency war.

Whether or not the Federal Reserve will stick to its planned rate-hike path is a key question for financial markets.

The Fed’s dilemma: overtightening versus overheating.

Europe’s unconventional monetary policies and low levels of interest rates are likely to persist.

The May statement emphasized the symmetry of the Fed’s 2% inflation target and indicated that the Fed’s baseline outlook remains for two or three additional interest rate hikes in 2018.

Recent economic data casts doubt on the anticipated BoE rate hike.