By Steve A. Rodosky | May 08, 2019 Inflation Expectations Are Higher – and Will Probably Keep Rising We see reasons why the current monetary and fiscal policy rhetoric may support higher inflation.
By Robert Mead | May 07, 2019 Political Winds in Australia and the Likelihood of Lower-for-Longer Interest Rates Although the Commonwealth Government can borrow for 10 years at the lowest rate on record, the burden of policy support has continued to fall on the Reserve Bank of Australia.
By Tiffany Wilding | May 01, 2019 Fed Evaluates Policy and Portfolio Strategy A quiet and unsurprising FOMC statement belies the important policy discussions and decisions ongoing at the Fed.
By Tiffany Wilding, Joachim Fels | Apr 16, 2019 Decoding the Fed’s Dovish Turn The Fed’s dovish pivot in March indicated that restrictive monetary policy is no longer warranted, but what does that mean for the markets? PIMCO experts Tiffany Wilding and Joachim Fels discuss this policy shift and what investors should know.
By Tiffany Wilding | Mar 20, 2019 Neutral Rates, Neutral Balance Sheet As widely expected, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at this week’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, but other aspects of the meeting had notable implications for markets and investors.
By Tiffany Wilding | Feb 08, 2019 How Durable Is the Fed’s Dovish Turn? The Federal Reserve’s recently communicated change in its outlook for monetary policy has led to concerns that the Fed is overreacting to market volatility, or worse, succumbing to political pressures. However, we believe there is a more compelling reason for the dovish shift.
By Tiffany Wilding | Jan 31, 2019 The Fed: Patient Amid Rising Uncertainty We think the Fed is right to be cautious in the face of rising global economic risks along with uncertainties surrounding politics and policy.
By Gene Frieda, Stephen Chang | Jan 31, 2019 China’s Growth Playbook: How to Get Out of a Fix After a long period of investment-driven growth, China is changing its playbook.
By Andrew Bosomworth | Jan 25, 2019 Delaying the ECB’s Liftoff We think Thursday’s downgraded growth assessment is a precursor to two changes in the ECB’s monetary policy stance later this year.
By Tiffany Wilding | Jan 14, 2019 The Fed: Poised to Pause in March We believe the Fed is right to be cautious in the face of rising global economic risks.
By Tiffany Wilding | Dec 19, 2018 Another Hike: When Will the Fed Pause – or Stop? We continue to view one to two policy rate hikes in 2019 as more likely.
By Andrew Bosomworth | Dec 14, 2018 Longer-Term Risks Complicate ECB's Policy Path: Beware the Pillars of Hercules Will the ECB have sufficient firepower – and support from the population – to spur the economy when the next recession arrives?
By PIMCO | Dec 03, 2018 Engineering Inflation: For the Fed, the Time Is Now With unemployment low and the U.S. economy enjoying a fiscal “sugar rush,” we think the odds of successfully engineering an inflation overshoot look pretty good – and that is pretty rare.
By Tiffany Wilding | Nov 30, 2018 Powell’s Speech Lifted Markets, But We Expect Gradual Rate Hikes to Continue Markets may have taken Fed Chairman Powell’s speech as a sign that the risks of central bank overtightening have receded, but we wouldn’t over-interpret Powell’s message to suggest that he is ignoring the risks of the economy overheating.
By Ed Devlin, Vinayak Seshasayee, Michael Kim | Oct 23, 2018 Collapsing Oil Prices, Not Trade, Pose Biggest Exogenous Risk to Canada’s Economy While trade policy has dominated headlines, we believe investors should focus on the collapse of Western Canadian Select (WCS) oil prices relative to global benchmarks, which represents the biggest exogenous risk to the Canadian economy.
By Tiffany Wilding | Sep 26, 2018 No September Surprise: U.S. Economic Strength Prompts Fed to Raise Policy Rate The Fed’s statement, projections and press conference support our view that the policy rate will continue to rise on a gradual trajectory.
By Tiffany Wilding | Sep 24, 2018 The Fed: Look Forward or Risk a Hawkish Mistake A focus on backward-looking data could lead to an overtightening mistake.
By Joachim Fels | Aug 29, 2018 Powell and the Fed Face ‘Dollar Doom Loop’ Dilemma The U.S. central bank is damned either way as it faces a choice on a September rate rise.
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Andrew Bosomworth Andrew T. Wittkop Daniel H. Hyman Ed Devlin Eve Tournier Gene Frieda Isaac Meng Jerome M. Schneider Joachim Fels Ketish Pothalingam Michael Kim Mihir P. Worah Mike Amey Mohsen Fahmi Olivia A. Albrecht PIMCO Richard Clarida Robert Mead Scott A. Mather Stephen Chang Steve A. Rodosky Tiffany Wilding Tomoya Masanao Tony Crescenzi Vinayak Seshasayee
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