In its December forecasts, the Federal Reserve estimates that the policy rate will hold steady through 2020. Will economic and trade developments change that view?

Fed Chair Powell signaled that another “insurance” rate cut is unlikely. Instead, further rate cuts are contingent on a more material deterioration in the economic outlook.

Headline inflation resulting from a food price shock can never be ignored fully.

Weakness in the U.S. economy leaves it vulnerable to shocks. We think the Fed will respond with additional easing this year.

That fiscal policy is becoming the new monetary policy when it comes to fighting recession was a key conclusion of PIMCO’s Secular Forum, and this was the message ECB President Mario Draghi underlined through both actions and words.

Even with additional cuts, we think economic growth could slow to a below-trend pace and prompt the unemployment rate to rise over several subsequent quarters.

The institutional “golden fetters” of the interwar period have been replaced by fundamental “global fetters” that severely constrain monetary policy.

The risk of recession has risen, but it’s not a foregone conclusion.

We think the Federal Reserve will look past stronger-than-expected consumer price increases in June and July.

Come the fall, the ECB will likely deliver yet another easing package that could effectively deplete its monetary policy toolbox.

We find the Fed’s statement clear, and we expect another rate cut as soon as September with possible additional cuts thereafter.

The market consequences of direct intervention by the U.S. could be substantial and thus bear consideration.

The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates at its July meeting. But how much will it cut?

June inflation may have been boosted by the recent increase in import tariffs, while inflationary pressures from rising wages and tight labor markets remain notably subdued.

Perhaps it’s time to ask whether the 2% inflation target has outlived its usefulness.

The tone of the FOMC statement and press conference was a notable shift from the May meeting, given uncertainty around the economic outlook.