Demand concerns, trade tensions, and strong implied U.S. production are driving an oil sell-off, much like in fourth-quarter 2018, but the complicated backdrop may create investment opportunities.

North American oil and gas production will likely be a critical input to the global growth engine, and the midstream sector underpins this growth.

The OPEC agreement seeks to limit the market imbalance and stem the recent price decline while not driving prices substantially higher.

While trade policy has dominated headlines, we believe investors should focus on the collapse of Western Canadian Select (WCS) oil prices relative to global benchmarks, which represents the biggest exogenous risk to the Canadian economy.

While we believe investors can expect a hawkish policy stance to keep supporting prices, the possible extension of waivers could drive the price trajectory.

Ultimately, we think the sell-off will prove transient and that the relationship of real yields to gold observed over the past decade will prevail.

The modified ruling triggered sharp rebounds for the names hurt most by FERC’s March policy announcement.

Our base case is that oil balances remain tight and that prices realized exceed what the futures market is indicating.

We believe the trend to simplify complex corporate structures strengthens the case for investing in MLPs and in midstream energy more broadly.

The ultimate impact will depend on Russia and OPEC’s responses to rising prices and tightening supplies.

We expect the recent rise in oil prices to be a modest headwind to U.S. economic activity while supporting inflation.

We see the tide turning for the MLP sector after a frustrating 2017.

What does backwardation in the oil futures curve mean for commodity investors?

The pivot to backwardation is notable for investors for three key reasons.

Second-quarter earnings support our underweight to energy-related credits in general and our macro view that Brent crude will likely remain range-bound.

The use of credit to fuel growth in China is weakening, a trend that has begun to depress demand for imports.