The Fed’s dilemma: overtightening versus overheating.

One of the potential rude awakenings that we advised investors to prepare for in our recent Secular Outlook is a surprising surge of productivity growth over the next several years.

We expect China’s real estate balloon to deflate slowly given inventory is close to record lows and the government has plenty of room for policy relaxation.

We may be witnessing an important turning point: Ten years after the financial crisis, the global economy and financial markets look set to enter a new era of potentially radical change.

With the number of potential catalysts in the next month or so, we could see trade risk escalate.